Bitcoin held firmly above $77,000 during trading on September 2, despite a weaker-than-expected jobs report and persistent high expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

According to the ADP report released on September 2, the U.S. private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, down from 44,000 in July. Base pay rose 3.2% year-over-year, while total compensation increased 4.7%. Despite the below-expectation figures, markets maintained their forecast that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 15–16 meeting.

Market bets on the Fed

Polymarket priced the odds of a 0.25% rate hike at 59% following the release of the report, edging up from 57% the previous day, with over $78 million in betting volume. The probability of keeping rates unchanged stood at 41%. The odds of a rate cut of any size were near zero.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.79% on Tuesday, its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year yield reached 5.27%. Japan also saw its 10-year government bond yield climb to 2.987%, a multi-year high.

Bitcoin and the crypto market

Bitcoin traded at $77,038, down 1% over 24 hours and 1.7% over seven days, after fluctuating between $76,298 and $77,930. Ethereum stood at $2,392, down 1.89%. XRP dropped 2.59% to $1.33. Solana fell 2.34% to $99 while maintaining a 2.5% gain for the week.

Total crypto market capitalization reached $2.67 trillion, down 1.68% over 24 hours on a trading volume of $81.75 billion. Bitcoin dominance stood at 57.9%.

Among the 125 largest tokens (excluding stablecoins), 84 fell and 40 rose. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index read 63, down from 69 on Tuesday, but has remained in greed territory since August 20.

ETFs and capital flows

According to Farside data at the time of writing, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $8.4 million in inflows during Tuesday’s session, entirely from Bitwise’s BITB, though several major issuers had yet to report their numbers. Monday’s session (August 31) closed at $216.7 million in inflows once fully compiled. SoSoValue data released later showed that the September 1 session for spot Bitcoin ETFs closed with $236 million in net outflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs, according to Farside, saw $8.6 million in inflows on Tuesday, led by BlackRock’s ETHB at $11.2 million.

Wall Street falls, gold rises

U.S. stock markets declined. The S&P 500 stood at 7,634 points, down 0.71%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.29% to 28,905 points. Gold rose 0.84% to $4,365 per ounce, while Brent crude dropped 0.55% to $94.13 per barrel.

Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said the bank’s quantitative signals had shifted from bearish to bullish for BTC. He set a support level at $67,000, noting that if the price falls below this mark, the recovery momentum will be broken. He also noted that the euro and yen are experiencing genuine weakness rather than the U.S. dollar strengthening, and that hedge funds have replaced central banks as the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries.

The August nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release on Friday, followed by the August CPI on September 11. These two indicators will serve as the final key pieces of data ahead of the Fed meeting.