Bitcoin broke above the $81,000 threshold during the September 3 session, as rapidly shifting market expectations regarding Fed interest rate policy provided fresh momentum for risk assets.
The catalyst was remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He indicated he leans toward leaving interest rates unchanged at the September meeting if next week’s August CPI report shows inflation continuing to improve. He noted that energy prices and tariffs have not generated as much inflationary pressure as he had previously feared.
The market reaction was immediate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a September Fed rate hike fell from nearly 70% in the prior session to around 50%. Bond yields slid in tandem: the 10-year yield dropped to 4.75%, while the 2-year yield fell to 4.33%.
Bitcoin gained more than 5% over the past 24 hours. Related stocks posted an even stronger rally: Strategy climbed nearly 10%, Robinhood gained 13%, Coinbase rose 8%, and Circle advanced 12%. A weakening US dollar provided additional support, with the DXY index sliding more than 0.5% below the 99 level as the Japanese yen rebounded.
A key piece of context to keep in mind: the Fed’s path remains undecided. The August CPI data scheduled for release next week is a critical variable ahead of the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting. If inflation cools faster than anticipated, a scenario where the Fed keeps rates on hold would further bolster the rally in risk assets. Conversely, a hotter CPI print could reignite rate hike expectations and test the newly established price levels.