On October 28, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. The two dissenting members were Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, both of whom preferred raising rates by 0.25 percentage points at this meeting.

What stands out is not the pause itself, but that the internal division leans toward tightening. This decision follows the rate hike in September, when the Fed raised the target range from 3.5-3.75% to 3.75-4%.

What the statement says about inflation

The FOMC statement noted that economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, domestic spending remains solid, productivity growth is high, and capital investment is robust. On prices, the phrasing was brief: inflation remains elevated.

The committee stated that additional information is needed to determine the appropriate policy stance to return inflation to its 2% objective, and reaffirmed its commitment to restoring price stability. The statement made no commitment regarding the timing of future moves.

Speaking at the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Americans have been dealing with inflation running above the committee’s target for nearly six years. He declined to answer whether the Fed would raise rates at its December meeting.

Markets bet on the next rate hike

CME FedWatch data as of October 28 showed traders assigning a 78.4% probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike at the December 8 and 9 meeting, and a 67.3% probability of at least one increase by March 2027.

For Bitcoin, an interest rate baseline around 4% offers a risk-free yield alternative for comparison. Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at tokenization platform Theo, told Cointelegraph that markets had already priced in the hold, but had not fully priced in the Fed’s hawkish tone.

Lewis Huang of Bitget, on the other hand, argued that Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory depends more on Treasury yields, US dollar movements, and broader risk sentiment. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, directed attention toward the PCE inflation report scheduled for release on October 29 and a wave of big tech earnings throughout the week.

Why this is still a liquidity story

Bitcoin was trading around $80,000 when the two articles were published, after briefly topping $81,000 on gains in Asian semiconductor stocks. The Fed’s decision to hold steady brings no direct additional pressure, but it also provides no justification for easing.

How markets react to incoming inflation data over the coming weeks will reveal how much of the December rate hike expectations are already priced in. Previously, a drop in rate-hike odds in September was enough to push Bitcoin above $81,000, showing that market sensitivity to policy expectations remains elevated.

The key point to watch: whether dissents within the FOMC grow at the December meeting, or if the two votes on October 28 were merely a minority stance.